Today's Plays
No play today.
The model passed on every game today. Its most confident picks are priced too steep to hold value, and the spots with value aren't confident enough to trust. We only post a play when there's a genuine edge — and today there isn't.
Most days look like this. That's the discipline — every call is published before first pitch and tracked in the open, passes included.
See the tracked record →Recent Results · JUL 9
1-0 Overall
How This Works
V10 is a logistic regression model trained on 7,428 MLB games from 2023–2026, validated at 55.7% honest out-of-sample accuracy. It finds games where the model's win probability differs from the Vegas-implied probability. That difference is what the model flags — not a claimed edge over the market itself.
Plays are the model's genuine picks: high win probability, positive expected value, and no contradicting market signal. Leans are moderate-confidence, lower-conviction calls. Everything else is a Pass — most games, where the model has no clear read.
Every prediction is published before first pitch. Every result is tracked. Nothing is sold. This is analytics research, not gambling advice.